Alice believes that the 49ers will win the Super Bowl with probability 5/8. Bob believes that Ravens will win the...

Continue reading...# probability

## Medical Tests and Bayes’ Theorem

Suppose that you are worried that you might have a rare disease. You decide to get tested, and suppose that...

Continue reading...## St. Petersburg Paradox

A new casino offers the following game: you toss a coin until it comes up heads. If the first heads...

Continue reading...## Farmers and Pesky Birds

Alice and Bob are two farmers each wanting to plant a (countably infinite) row of seeds, side by side in...

Continue reading...## Poker Probability Paradox

In poker, there is a hierarchy of desirable hands which relate to how unlikely the hand is. For instance, a...

Continue reading...## Monty Hall Problem

Here’s a problem that makes the round every few years, and each time, it is hotly debated. You are on...

Continue reading...## Deal or No Deal

On the TV show “Deal or No Deal”, a contestant is faced with a number of briefcases (26 in the...

Continue reading...## Seven Shuffles

How many shuffles does it take to randomize a deck of cards? The answer, of course, depends on what kind...

Continue reading...## Pass the Beer

Suppose you and a bunch of friends are sitting around a table. There are N of you. You have a...

Continue reading...## Two Envelopes Paradox

I have two envelopes, and inside each I have put some money. In fact, one envelope contains twice as much...

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